Is Phoenix leaning toward a seller’s market right now, or has it cooled? If you are trying to time a move, the headlines can feel noisy and confusing. You deserve a clear, simple way to read the market so you can price confidently, write stronger offers, and avoid costly mistakes. In this guide, you will learn the exact metrics that define a seller’s market, how they apply to Phoenix and the East Valley, and how to use them in real life. Let’s dive in.
What makes a seller’s market
Understanding a few core metrics lets you label the market with confidence.
Months of supply
- What it is: Active listings divided by the average number of homes sold per month.
- Why it matters: It shows supply relative to demand in one number.
- Quick read of the number:
- Under 3 months: seller’s market
- Around 3 to 6 months: balanced market
- Over 6 months: buyer’s market
- This definition aligns with standard practice used by market analysts and the National Association of Realtors.
Days on market (DOM)
- What it is: How long a home takes to go under contract. Median DOM is more reliable than the average.
- How to read it: Falling DOM signals stronger demand. Rising DOM can mean cooling demand or overpricing.
- Tip: Compare to the same time last year to avoid seasonal noise.
Sale-to-list ratio
- What it is: Sale price divided by the final list price, expressed as a percentage.
- How to read it:
- Over 100%: multiple offers are likely
- 98% to 100%: close to list price, still competitive
- Under 98%: buyers are securing discounts or sellers are cutting price
Momentum checks
- Pending-to-active ratio: Pending sales divided by active listings. A ratio over 1 suggests strong demand.
- Price reductions: A rising share of price cuts is an early cooling signal.
- Price trends: Look at median sale price direction and pace, both month-over-month and year-over-year.
Phoenix context you should know
Phoenix moved from an extremely tight pandemic market toward a more balanced feel during 2023, as inventory rose and days on market lengthened. Even with that cooling, many neighborhoods remain competitive due to steady demand and population growth across the metro. This broad pattern matches what local analysts and MLS data have shown since the 2020 to 2022 surge.
In the East Valley, cities like Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Tempe, Queen Creek, and San Tan Valley often see stronger demand in price ranges under roughly 600 to 700 thousand. That is because these areas offer newer housing stock and proximity to employment centers. New construction has been active in parts of the East Valley, which can relieve pressure in some price bands and affect resale pricing.
Phoenix is also seasonal. Spring tends to bring more listings and faster activity. Summer often brings adjustments, and fall and winter are quieter. Always compare this month to the same month last year rather than relying only on month-to-month shifts.
To keep a close eye on these trends, you can follow local data sources that track Phoenix-specific movement, such as the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS), the subscription-based Cromford Report, and regional economic updates from the Greater Phoenix Economic Council. For bigger picture context, population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and mortgage rate trends from the Federal Reserve’s FRED can help you understand demand and affordability drivers.
How to check Phoenix’s market this week
Here is a simple, repeatable process you can use, the same way Rebecca checks conditions for clients using ARMLS data.
Step 1: Pull the core numbers
- Months of supply: Use active listings divided by average monthly closings, ideally using a trailing three-month average.
- Median DOM: Compare to last year’s same month.
- Sale-to-list ratio: Confirm whether it uses original or final list price.
Step 2: Compare micro-markets
- Geography: Phoenix overall, then drill into East Valley cities and specific subdivisions or ZIP codes.
- Price bands: Under 400 thousand, 400 to 700 thousand, and 700 thousand plus.
- Property type: Single-family resale, townhomes/condos, and new construction.
Step 3: Watch weekly momentum
- New listings vs. new pendings
- Pending-to-active ratio
- Share of active listings with recent price reductions
Step 4: Decide what it means
- Under 3 months of supply with low DOM and sale-to-list above 100% suggests a seller’s market.
- Around 3 to 6 months with steady DOM and sale-to-list around 98% to 100% suggests balance.
- Over 6 months with rising DOM and widespread price cuts suggests a buyer’s market.
A quick example calculation
The math below is just an illustration so you can see how to read the numbers. Always use current ARMLS data for your city and price band.
Hypothetical example only:
| Metric | Phoenix Example | East Valley Example | What it signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Months of supply | 2.5 | 2.0 | Seller’s advantage in both |
| Median DOM | 18 | 14 | Faster pace in East Valley |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 100.5% | 101.0% | Multiple-offer conditions likely |
If your live numbers look similar, you are probably in a seller-leaning market. If your months of supply pushes above 4 with rising DOM, you are drifting toward balance.
What this means for sellers
If Phoenix or your neighborhood shows tight supply and quick sales, you can lean into pricing strategy and presentation.
Seller’s market playbook:
- Price at or just below market to spark competition if condition and staging are strong.
- Set a clear marketing timeline with professional photos, strong online placement, and a first-week plan.
- Prepare for quick decisions on offers, including how you will weigh escalation terms or appraisal gaps.
Balanced market playbook:
- Price competitively using the most recent comparable sales.
- Invest in pre-listing tune-ups and staging to stand out.
- Expect normal timelines and inspection negotiations.
Buyer-leaning market playbook:
- Be realistic on price and plan for longer days on market.
- Consider strategic price adjustments and targeted concessions.
- Keep condition top-notch to win the short list.
What this means for buyers
Your strategy depends on the same three metrics.
In a seller’s market:
- Get fully pre-approved before touring.
- Move quickly on new listings and consider strong earnest money or escalation terms if appropriate.
- Keep timelines tight where you can, while protecting key contingencies.
In a balanced market:
- Negotiate for seller concessions or repairs when supported by the inspection.
- Compare new-build incentives to nearby resale options.
- Be patient and let the right match come to market.
In a buyer-leaning market:
- Aim for price reductions or closing cost credits.
- Use longer due diligence where appropriate and shop across price bands.
- Watch price cuts and reactivated listings for opportunity.
East Valley micro-markets to watch
Micro-markets in the East Valley can move differently from Phoenix overall. In many recent cycles, price ranges under 600 to 700 thousand have remained tight due to consistent demand and limited resale inventory. New construction in places like Queen Creek and San Tan Valley can relieve pressure in certain segments, while established neighborhoods in Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, and Tempe may still see fast-moving resale activity. Always compare your city, neighborhood, and price band side by side.
Regional trends such as job growth and relocations can add a steady demand base across the metro. You can monitor these themes through the Greater Phoenix Economic Council and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Mortgage rate shifts, tracked by the Federal Reserve’s FRED, will also influence buyer activity and affordability.
How Rebecca reads the data for you
Rebecca’s role is to translate the numbers into clear advice you can act on. Here is the process she follows using MLS tools and neighborhood-level filters:
Weekly checks:
- New listings vs. new pendings and the pending-to-active ratio
- Days on market spikes and bidding activity
- Price reductions and re-listed homes
Monthly checks:
- Months of supply using a trailing three-month average
- Median DOM, median sale price, and sale-to-list ratio
- Inventory by price band and the impact of nearby new construction
Filters she runs:
- Geography by city, ZIP, subdivision, and school attendance areas where relevant
- Property type by single-family, condo/townhome, and new build
- Price bands that fit your budget and goals
How that turns into advice:
- If your months of supply is under 3 with falling DOM, she may recommend pricing near market with strong staging to encourage multiple offers.
- If your segment reads balanced, she will set a realistic timeline, plan for negotiation points, and price with precision.
- If conditions tilt toward buyers, she will outline concessions and timing strategies that protect your bottom line.
For industry context and definitions, Rebecca also references the National Association of Realtors and local analytics from the Cromford Report.
Bottom line
Phoenix has eased from the extremes of the past few years, yet many East Valley segments still run competitive. You can cut through the noise by watching three numbers: months of supply, median days on market, and sale-to-list ratio. Read them for your exact neighborhood and price band, then tailor your plan. If you want help pulling the latest ARMLS figures and mapping your next step, reach out to the trusted local guide who does this every week.
Ready to see where you stand today? Request your free home valuation and a neighborhood-by-neighborhood read of the market from Rebecca Smith Real Estate.
FAQs
How do I know if Phoenix is a seller’s market?
- Check months of supply under 3, low and falling median DOM, and a sale-to-list ratio near or above 100%. Together, these point to seller advantage.
What East Valley price ranges feel most competitive?
- In many cycles, segments under roughly 600 to 700 thousand stay tight due to steady demand and limited resale supply. Always confirm with current MLS data for your city and price band.
How do mortgage rates affect Phoenix buyers and sellers?
- Higher rates can cool demand and slow price growth, while lower rates can bring more buyers back. Watch affordability trends using the Federal Reserve’s FRED and compare to local supply.
Where can I track official Phoenix housing data?
- Use ARMLS market reports for local numbers, the subscription-based Cromford Report for analysis, and the National Association of Realtors for definitions and national context.
Does new construction change East Valley resale pricing?
- Yes. New-home deliveries add supply that can moderate resale price growth in overlapping price bands. Compare incentives and inventory near your target neighborhood, and track city building activity via the U.S. Census Bureau.
